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[title] => Nakon Ukrajine i Bliskog istoka, ovo bi moglo biti treće veliko krizno žarište: Zašto najveća zapadna sila nije spremna?
[alias] => nakon-ukrajine-i-bliskog-istoka-ovo-bi-moglo-biti-trece-veliko-krizno-zariste-zasto-najveca-zapadna-sila-nije-spremna
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Nedavno obraćanje američkog predsjednika Joea Bidena u Ovalnom uredu označilo je ključni trenutak u sve većem natjecanju između Amerike i njezinih saveznika s jedne strane te osovine diktatura koje se stvaraju oko Rusije, Kine, Irana i Sjeverne Koreje s druge strane, piše Politico.
Bidenov govor je učinkovito spojio rat u Ukrajini i širi rat koji se sprema na Bliskom istoku u dvije strane istog sukoba. A ako sada napadne i Hezbollah, to će SAD-u i njegovim saveznicima dati znatno prošireno poprište rata i dodatno opteretiti vojne resurse.
Istovremeno se čini vjerojatnim da će se Tajvan pojaviti kao treća sfera sukoba u idućih nekoliko godina, a možda i prije. I Peking jača svoju vojsku. Mornarica Narodne oslobodilačke vojske već je brojčano veća od kopnene snage, a nuklearne snage brzo rastu.
U međuvremenu Rusija, bez obzira na trajanje rata u Ukrajini, širi svoju proizvodnju. To uključuje i vraćanje oštećene opreme s bojnog polja, a pokreće i sustav proizvodnje. Ruska vojska je sada sposobna za borbu i mobilizaciju istovremeno, s ciljem da proširi svoje redove na 1,5 milijuna vojnika.
Jednostavnije rečeno, američki se protivnici spremaju na rat. U Washingtonu ipak rasprave o nacionalnoj sigurnosti rijetko kada započinju priznanjem da Kina i Rusija grade svoje vojske ne za obranu, već za napad. Politico piše da bi upravo to trebala biti početna točka svih razgovora o potrošnji SAD-a i saveznika za obranu.
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Ogromni izdaci za oružje, streljivo i ljudske živote u Ukrajini trebali bi biti poziv za uzbunu. SAD bi se trebao početi pitati je li njihov model snaga koji se sastoji isključivo od dobrovoljaca dorastao zadatku, posebno kada je riječ o obučenim pričuvama. No to nije samo problem SAD-a, već je postao dominantan diljem Zapada. A s obzirom na sve s čime se suočavaju Europa i Azija, možda je vrijeme za ponovno promišljanje. Trenutni broj vojnika jednostavno nije dorastao zadatku. Zapadne vojske, mornarice i zračne snage su jednostavno premale da bi odgovorile i na Atlantiku i na Pacifiku, dva poprišta rata koja će definirati ishod svakog budućeg globalnog sukoba, prenosi Jutarnji list.
Rješenje nije ‘okrenuti se Aziji‘, već obnoviti zapadne snage s potrebnim viškom u rezervi. U sve nestabilnijem svijetu imperativ je da SAD poveća izdatke za obranu.
Odvraćanje u Europi i Aziji zahtijeva stalno stacioniranje, a ne rotacijsku prisutnost, što je bila privremena mjera za izbjegavanje teških izbora. Ako NATO želi preživjeti, odvraćanje i kolektivna teritorijalna obrana u Europi moraju biti novi fokus.
---
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U Aziji bilateralna sigurnosna jamstva i napori za stabilizaciju područja moraju biti podržani raspoređivanjem SAD-a i saveznika. Amerika mora preispitati kako gradi svoje oružane snage i oružje.
Primjerice, prošle godine je Amerika imala 25 posto manjka u novačenju, a ove su godine opet ispod cilja. Svoje ciljeve zapošljavanja nije ove godine ispunila ni Mornarica, a popunjavanje posade američkih brodova postaje sve veći izazov.
SAD stoga sada treba prestati govoriti o natjecanju velikih sila i zapitati se kako bi zapravo izgledala pobjeda u ovom sukobu demokracija i diktatura.
SAD mora odlučiti i koja su geopolitička središta ključna za njihovu domovinsku sigurnost i prosperitet građana. Moraju vratiti prioritete nacionalne sigurnosti u donošenje odluka i ponovno naučiti ono što su ranije generacije znale, a čini se da je zaboravljeno tijekom proteklih 30 godina: da se ne može ovisiti o protivniku kada je riječ o osnovnim stvarima za održavanje društva, a zatim očekivati pobjedu ako taj protivnik odluči krenuti u rat.
Bude li SAD prisiljen na rat, neće biti vremena za kompenzaciju nedostataka ili gomilanje oružja i streljiva. Lekcije koje treba naučiti iz Ukrajine, a sada i iz Izraela, takve su da SAD i njegovi saveznici moraju preispitati način na koji su izgrađene njihove vojske, tako da postoji način za slanje velikih snaga na teren ako se to pokaže potrebnim.
Potreban je novi osjećaj hitnosti u vezi s prijetnjom s kojom smo suočeni, i moramo djelovati odmah, piše Politico.
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Nedavno obraćanje američkog predsjednika Joea Bidena u Ovalnom uredu označilo je ključni trenutak u sve većem natjecanju između Amerike i njezinih saveznika s jedne strane te osovine diktatura koje se stvaraju oko Rusije, Kine, Irana i Sjeverne Koreje s druge strane, piše Politico.
Bidenov govor je učinkovito spojio rat u Ukrajini i širi rat koji se sprema na Bliskom istoku u dvije strane istog sukoba. A ako sada napadne i Hezbollah, to će SAD-u i njegovim saveznicima dati znatno prošireno poprište rata i dodatno opteretiti vojne resurse.
Istovremeno se čini vjerojatnim da će se Tajvan pojaviti kao treća sfera sukoba u idućih nekoliko godina, a možda i prije. I Peking jača svoju vojsku. Mornarica Narodne oslobodilačke vojske već je brojčano veća od kopnene snage, a nuklearne snage brzo rastu.
U međuvremenu Rusija, bez obzira na trajanje rata u Ukrajini, širi svoju proizvodnju. To uključuje i vraćanje oštećene opreme s bojnog polja, a pokreće i sustav proizvodnje. Ruska vojska je sada sposobna za borbu i mobilizaciju istovremeno, s ciljem da proširi svoje redove na 1,5 milijuna vojnika.
Jednostavnije rečeno, američki se protivnici spremaju na rat. U Washingtonu ipak rasprave o nacionalnoj sigurnosti rijetko kada započinju priznanjem da Kina i Rusija grade svoje vojske ne za obranu, već za napad. Politico piše da bi upravo to trebala biti početna točka svih razgovora o potrošnji SAD-a i saveznika za obranu.
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Ogromni izdaci za oružje, streljivo i ljudske živote u Ukrajini trebali bi biti poziv za uzbunu. SAD bi se trebao početi pitati je li njihov model snaga koji se sastoji isključivo od dobrovoljaca dorastao zadatku, posebno kada je riječ o obučenim pričuvama. No to nije samo problem SAD-a, već je postao dominantan diljem Zapada. A s obzirom na sve s čime se suočavaju Europa i Azija, možda je vrijeme za ponovno promišljanje. Trenutni broj vojnika jednostavno nije dorastao zadatku. Zapadne vojske, mornarice i zračne snage su jednostavno premale da bi odgovorile i na Atlantiku i na Pacifiku, dva poprišta rata koja će definirati ishod svakog budućeg globalnog sukoba, prenosi Jutarnji list.
Rješenje nije ‘okrenuti se Aziji‘, već obnoviti zapadne snage s potrebnim viškom u rezervi. U sve nestabilnijem svijetu imperativ je da SAD poveća izdatke za obranu.
Odvraćanje u Europi i Aziji zahtijeva stalno stacioniranje, a ne rotacijsku prisutnost, što je bila privremena mjera za izbjegavanje teških izbora. Ako NATO želi preživjeti, odvraćanje i kolektivna teritorijalna obrana u Europi moraju biti novi fokus.
---
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U Aziji bilateralna sigurnosna jamstva i napori za stabilizaciju područja moraju biti podržani raspoređivanjem SAD-a i saveznika. Amerika mora preispitati kako gradi svoje oružane snage i oružje.
Primjerice, prošle godine je Amerika imala 25 posto manjka u novačenju, a ove su godine opet ispod cilja. Svoje ciljeve zapošljavanja nije ove godine ispunila ni Mornarica, a popunjavanje posade američkih brodova postaje sve veći izazov.
SAD stoga sada treba prestati govoriti o natjecanju velikih sila i zapitati se kako bi zapravo izgledala pobjeda u ovom sukobu demokracija i diktatura.
SAD mora odlučiti i koja su geopolitička središta ključna za njihovu domovinsku sigurnost i prosperitet građana. Moraju vratiti prioritete nacionalne sigurnosti u donošenje odluka i ponovno naučiti ono što su ranije generacije znale, a čini se da je zaboravljeno tijekom proteklih 30 godina: da se ne može ovisiti o protivniku kada je riječ o osnovnim stvarima za održavanje društva, a zatim očekivati pobjedu ako taj protivnik odluči krenuti u rat.
Bude li SAD prisiljen na rat, neće biti vremena za kompenzaciju nedostataka ili gomilanje oružja i streljiva. Lekcije koje treba naučiti iz Ukrajine, a sada i iz Izraela, takve su da SAD i njegovi saveznici moraju preispitati način na koji su izgrađene njihove vojske, tako da postoji način za slanje velikih snaga na teren ako se to pokaže potrebnim.
Potreban je novi osjećaj hitnosti u vezi s prijetnjom s kojom smo suočeni, i moramo djelovati odmah, piše Politico.
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14. svibanj 2024 09:50
