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Institut za proučavanje rata objavio je u svojoj posljednjoj procjeni da će ruske snage nastaviti ofenzivu u Donjeckoj oblasti u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana nakon što stignu dodatne mobilizirane ruske trupe i snage povučene iz Hersona.

Prema ISW-u, ukrajinske snage u Donjeckoj oblasti “će se naći pod teškim pritiskom”, a Ukrajina će vjerojatno morati preraspodijeliti neke trupe za obranu od ovih ofenziva. “Rusi vjerojatno neće ostvariti operativne značajne dobitke usprkos svojim obnovljenim naporima, iako bi s vremenom mogli zauzeti Bahmut uz enormnu cijenu”, piše ISW.

“Putin je vjerojatno dopustio Surovikinu da se povuče iz zapadnog Hersona pod uvjetom da zauzme ostatak Donjecke oblasti, koristeći ruske snage vraćene iz zapadnog Hersona kao i novopristigle mobilizirane vojnike. Ovo zapažanje koje je iznio Andriy Zagorodnyuk, predsjednik Ukrajinskog centra obrambenih strategija, najvjerojatnije je objašnjenje za nastavak intenziteta ruskih ofenzivnih operacija prvo oko Bahmuta, a zatim na jugozapadu oko područja Vuhledar, koje su započele 28. listopada”, piše ISW.

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“Prestanak ili produženo usporavanje borbenih operacija u sljedećih nekoliko mjeseci je vrlo malo vjerojatno. Rusi ne pokušavaju uspostaviti i ojačati obrambene položaje duž cijele linije, već obnavljaju ofenzivne operacije u Donjeckoj oblasti. Ukrajinci će gotovo sigurno nastaviti svoje protuofenzivne operacije koje su već u tijeku. Obje strane već se bore u vrlo blatnim uvjetima. Vjerojatno se neće prestati boriti kada zima zaledi tlo i učini ga još pogodnijim za mehanizirano manevarsko ratovanje velikih razmjera”, navodi ISW, a prenosi Index.

“Bilo kakav pokušaj primirja ili prekida neprijateljstava u ovom trenutku bi velikom većinom pogodovao Rusiji. Putin bi trebao željeti takav prekid vatre, to mu je u interesu. Trebao bi shvatiti da treba dati vremena svojim snagama da se oporave i omogućiti rezervistima koji dolaze na ratište vremena da se integriraju u svoje jedinice, obuče i pripreme za ozbiljnu borbu.

Činjenica da Putin nastavlja tjerati svoje generale na ofenzive u ovim okolnostima stoga je teška pogreška iz vojne perspektive. To vjerojatno proizlazi iz bilo kojih psiholoških čimbenika koji su Putina uopće naveli da naredi invaziju, ali također sve više iz Putinove potrebe da pokaže svoju čvrstoću tvrdolinijaškoj frakciji koju predvodi, barem u javnosti, financijer Wagnera Jevgenij Prigožin.

Prema tome, malo je vjerojatno da će Putin biti voljan tražiti prekid vatre, osim ako ga ne prate ogromni ukrajinski ili međunarodni ustupci”, zaključuje ISW.

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Institut za proučavanje rata objavio je u svojoj posljednjoj procjeni da će ruske snage nastaviti ofenzivu u Donjeckoj oblasti u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana nakon što stignu dodatne mobilizirane ruske trupe i snage povučene iz Hersona.

Prema ISW-u, ukrajinske snage u Donjeckoj oblasti “će se naći pod teškim pritiskom”, a Ukrajina će vjerojatno morati preraspodijeliti neke trupe za obranu od ovih ofenziva. “Rusi vjerojatno neće ostvariti operativne značajne dobitke usprkos svojim obnovljenim naporima, iako bi s vremenom mogli zauzeti Bahmut uz enormnu cijenu”, piše ISW.

“Putin je vjerojatno dopustio Surovikinu da se povuče iz zapadnog Hersona pod uvjetom da zauzme ostatak Donjecke oblasti, koristeći ruske snage vraćene iz zapadnog Hersona kao i novopristigle mobilizirane vojnike. Ovo zapažanje koje je iznio Andriy Zagorodnyuk, predsjednik Ukrajinskog centra obrambenih strategija, najvjerojatnije je objašnjenje za nastavak intenziteta ruskih ofenzivnih operacija prvo oko Bahmuta, a zatim na jugozapadu oko područja Vuhledar, koje su započele 28. listopada”, piše ISW.

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“Prestanak ili produženo usporavanje borbenih operacija u sljedećih nekoliko mjeseci je vrlo malo vjerojatno. Rusi ne pokušavaju uspostaviti i ojačati obrambene položaje duž cijele linije, već obnavljaju ofenzivne operacije u Donjeckoj oblasti. Ukrajinci će gotovo sigurno nastaviti svoje protuofenzivne operacije koje su već u tijeku. Obje strane već se bore u vrlo blatnim uvjetima. Vjerojatno se neće prestati boriti kada zima zaledi tlo i učini ga još pogodnijim za mehanizirano manevarsko ratovanje velikih razmjera”, navodi ISW, a prenosi Index.

“Bilo kakav pokušaj primirja ili prekida neprijateljstava u ovom trenutku bi velikom većinom pogodovao Rusiji. Putin bi trebao željeti takav prekid vatre, to mu je u interesu. Trebao bi shvatiti da treba dati vremena svojim snagama da se oporave i omogućiti rezervistima koji dolaze na ratište vremena da se integriraju u svoje jedinice, obuče i pripreme za ozbiljnu borbu.

Činjenica da Putin nastavlja tjerati svoje generale na ofenzive u ovim okolnostima stoga je teška pogreška iz vojne perspektive. To vjerojatno proizlazi iz bilo kojih psiholoških čimbenika koji su Putina uopće naveli da naredi invaziju, ali također sve više iz Putinove potrebe da pokaže svoju čvrstoću tvrdolinijaškoj frakciji koju predvodi, barem u javnosti, financijer Wagnera Jevgenij Prigožin.

Prema tome, malo je vjerojatno da će Putin biti voljan tražiti prekid vatre, osim ako ga ne prate ogromni ukrajinski ili međunarodni ustupci”, zaključuje ISW.

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Institut za rat objavio novu analizu: ‘Putin je napravio tešku pogrešku. Malo je vjerojatno da će biti voljan tražiti prekid vatre...‘

Piše PSD
14. studenog 2022. - 07:24
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Institut za proučavanje rata/Twitter

Institut za proučavanje rata objavio je u svojoj posljednjoj procjeni da će ruske snage nastaviti ofenzivu u Donjeckoj oblasti u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana nakon što stignu dodatne mobilizirane ruske trupe i snage povučene iz Hersona.

Prema ISW-u, ukrajinske snage u Donjeckoj oblasti “će se naći pod teškim pritiskom”, a Ukrajina će vjerojatno morati preraspodijeliti neke trupe za obranu od ovih ofenziva. “Rusi vjerojatno neće ostvariti operativne značajne dobitke usprkos svojim obnovljenim naporima, iako bi s vremenom mogli zauzeti Bahmut uz enormnu cijenu”, piše ISW.

“Putin je vjerojatno dopustio Surovikinu da se povuče iz zapadnog Hersona pod uvjetom da zauzme ostatak Donjecke oblasti, koristeći ruske snage vraćene iz zapadnog Hersona kao i novopristigle mobilizira...

#INSTITUT ZA RAT#RAT U UKRAJINI #VLADIMIR PUTIN
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