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 Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu za dugoročnu prognozu vremena, vrlo je velika vjerojatnost da će zima 2023./24. u Hrvatskoj (klimatološka zima – prosinac, siječanj, veljača)* biti toplija od klimatološkog prosjeka (1981. – 2010.), objavio je danas DHMZ.

Gledajući po mjesecima, veće odstupanje srednje mjesečne temperature od srednjaka izgledno je u prosincu te siječnju, i na kopnu i na moru, dok se manje pozitivno odstupanje očekuje u veljači. Uz prodore hladnog zraka, kojih će zasigurno biti tijekom zime, temperatura se nakratko može spustiti na vrijednosti oko ili čak osjetno ispod prosječnih, ali će zimu u cjelini najvjerojatnije obilježiti iznadprosječna toplina.

Manja pouzdanost kod prognoza na sezonskoj skali javlja se kod prognoze količine oborine zbog njezine složenosti, što kod interpretacije izračuna valja imati na umu. Za ovu se zimu predviđa količina oborine uglavnom veća od višegodišnjeg srednjaka uz umjerenu do veliku vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze. U većem dijelu zemlje postoji signal za pozitivno odstupanje količine oborine od prosjeka u sva tri mjeseca, uz vjerojatnost nešto veću u veljači nego u prosincu i siječnju.

Dugoročne prognoze, odnosno prognozirano odstupanje meteoroloških parametara od sezonskog prosjeka, ne mogu dati detalje vezane za promjene na manjoj vremenskoj skali. Primjerice, u sezonskoj se prognozi ne može prognozirati tip oborine (kiša, snijeg, susnježica, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu...). Valja imati na umu da se tijekom sezone mogu izmjenjivati razdoblja bez oborine s razdobljima kada je, ne samo lokalno, moguća izraženija oborina, točnije obilna kiša ili snijeg.

Uz informacije koje nam donosi sezonska prognoza, potrebno je pratiti i vremenska izvješća, te upozorenja na opasne vremenske pojave koja se odnose na kraća vremenska razdoblja (dan ili dva unaprijed), osobito kada je u pitanju vrsta oborine ili vremenski ekstremi (npr. obilne oborine, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu, te nagla i izražena zahladnjenja).

Sezonska prognoza za zimu u skladu je s prognozom Klimatskog foruma za jugoistočnu Europu (SEECOF) i Klimatskog foruma za područje Mediterana i sjeverne Afrike – MedCOF, kojih je Hrvatska članica.

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Snažno jugo i valovi u Pilama podno dubrovačkih zidina atrakcija su za turiste.
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Snažno jugo i valovi u Pilama podno dubrovačkih zidina atrakcija su za turiste.
Tonci Plazibat/Cropix ) ) [bgPosition] => [text] => {OCMSplitter}

 Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu za dugoročnu prognozu vremena, vrlo je velika vjerojatnost da će zima 2023./24. u Hrvatskoj (klimatološka zima – prosinac, siječanj, veljača)* biti toplija od klimatološkog prosjeka (1981. – 2010.), objavio je danas DHMZ.

Gledajući po mjesecima, veće odstupanje srednje mjesečne temperature od srednjaka izgledno je u prosincu te siječnju, i na kopnu i na moru, dok se manje pozitivno odstupanje očekuje u veljači. Uz prodore hladnog zraka, kojih će zasigurno biti tijekom zime, temperatura se nakratko može spustiti na vrijednosti oko ili čak osjetno ispod prosječnih, ali će zimu u cjelini najvjerojatnije obilježiti iznadprosječna toplina.

Manja pouzdanost kod prognoza na sezonskoj skali javlja se kod prognoze količine oborine zbog njezine složenosti, što kod interpretacije izračuna valja imati na umu. Za ovu se zimu predviđa količina oborine uglavnom veća od višegodišnjeg srednjaka uz umjerenu do veliku vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze. U većem dijelu zemlje postoji signal za pozitivno odstupanje količine oborine od prosjeka u sva tri mjeseca, uz vjerojatnost nešto veću u veljači nego u prosincu i siječnju.

Dugoročne prognoze, odnosno prognozirano odstupanje meteoroloških parametara od sezonskog prosjeka, ne mogu dati detalje vezane za promjene na manjoj vremenskoj skali. Primjerice, u sezonskoj se prognozi ne može prognozirati tip oborine (kiša, snijeg, susnježica, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu...). Valja imati na umu da se tijekom sezone mogu izmjenjivati razdoblja bez oborine s razdobljima kada je, ne samo lokalno, moguća izraženija oborina, točnije obilna kiša ili snijeg.

Uz informacije koje nam donosi sezonska prognoza, potrebno je pratiti i vremenska izvješća, te upozorenja na opasne vremenske pojave koja se odnose na kraća vremenska razdoblja (dan ili dva unaprijed), osobito kada je u pitanju vrsta oborine ili vremenski ekstremi (npr. obilne oborine, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu, te nagla i izražena zahladnjenja).

Sezonska prognoza za zimu u skladu je s prognozom Klimatskog foruma za jugoistočnu Europu (SEECOF) i Klimatskog foruma za područje Mediterana i sjeverne Afrike – MedCOF, kojih je Hrvatska članica.

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Tonci Plazibat/Cropix
Tonci Plazibat/Cropix

Snažno jugo i valovi u Pilama podno dubrovačkih zidina atrakcija su za turiste.

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Hrvatska i svijetVREMENSKA PROGNOZA

DHMZ objavio sezonsku prognozu za zimu. Bit će više oborina od prosjeka

Piše PSD.
30. studenog 2023. - 12:49
<p>Snažno jugo i valovi u Pilama podno dubrovačkih zidina atrakcija su za turiste.<br>
Snažno jugo i valovi u Pilama podno dubrovačkih zidina atrakcija su za turiste.Tonci Plazibat/Cropix

 Prema dostupnom prognostičkom materijalu za dugoročnu prognozu vremena, vrlo je velika vjerojatnost da će zima 2023./24. u Hrvatskoj (klimatološka zima – prosinac, siječanj, veljača)* biti toplija od klimatološkog prosjeka (1981. – 2010.), objavio je danas DHMZ.

Gledajući po mjesecima, veće odstupanje srednje mjesečne temperature od srednjaka izgledno je u prosincu te siječnju, i na kopnu i na moru, dok se manje pozitivno odstupanje očekuje u veljači. Uz prodore hladnog zraka, kojih će zasigurno biti tijekom zime, temperatura se nakratko može spustiti na vrijednosti oko ili čak osjetno ispod prosječnih, ali će zimu u cjelini najvjerojatnije obilježiti iznadprosječna toplina.

Manja pouzdanost kod prognoza na sezonskoj skali javlja se kod prognoze količine oborine zbog njezine složenosti, što kod interpretacije izračuna valja imati na umu. Za ovu se zimu predviđa količina oborine uglavnom veća od višegodišnjeg srednjaka uz umjerenu do veliku vjerojatnost ostvarenja prognoze. U većem dijelu zemlje postoji signal za pozitivno odstupanje količine oborine od prosjeka u sva tri mjeseca, uz vjerojatnost nešto veću u veljači nego u prosincu i siječnju.

Dugoročne prognoze, odnosno prognozirano odstupanje meteoroloških parametara od sezonskog prosjeka, ne mogu dati detalje vezane za promjene na manjoj vremenskoj skali. Primjerice, u sezonskoj se prognozi ne može prognozirati tip oborine (kiša, snijeg, susnježica, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu...). Valja imati na umu da se tijekom sezone mogu izmjenjivati razdoblja bez oborine s razdobljima kada je, ne samo lokalno, moguća izraženija oborina, točnije obilna kiša ili snijeg.

Uz informacije koje nam donosi sezonska prognoza, potrebno je pratiti i vremenska izvješća, te upozorenja na opasne vremenske pojave koja se odnose na kraća vremenska razdoblja (dan ili dva unaprijed), osobito kada je u pitanju vrsta oborine ili vremenski ekstremi (npr. obilne oborine, kiša koja se smrzava na tlu, te nagla i izražena zahladnjenja).

Sezonska prognoza za zimu u skladu je s prognozom Klimatskog foruma za jugoistočnu Europu (SEECOF) i Klimatskog foruma za područje Mediterana i sjeverne Afrike – MedCOF, kojih je Hrvatska članica.

#PROGNOZA#ZIMA 2023724#SEZONSKA PROGNOZA#DHMZ
13. svibanj 2024 00:12