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Milijarder ulagač Stanley Druckenmiller vjeruje da pokušaj američke centralne banke (FED) da se jednostavnom monetarnom politikom dizanja kamatnih stopa zbog brzo riješi viškova količine novca, kojima je pomogla u stvaranju desetljeća, i tako othrva inflaciji, neće dobro završiti za američko gospodarstvo.

"Najvjerojatniji rasplet je tvrdo prizemljenje do kraja 2023. godine", rekao je Druckenmiller na CNBC-jevom Delivering Alpha Investor Summitu u New Yorku. “Bit ću zapanjen ako ne budemo imali recesiju iduće godine. Ne znam vrijeme, ali sigurno do kraja 2023."

No legendarni investitor, koji nikada dosad nije imao lošu trgovinsku godinu na tržištima, boji se da bi se moglo dogoditi nešto još gore. "Ne isključujem nešto jako loše", rekao je.

Druckenmiller vjeruje da su izvanredno kvantitativno popuštanje tj. printanje novca i nulte kamatne stope tijekom proteklog desetljeća stvorili imovinski balon.

"Svi ti čimbenici koji uzrokuju rastuće tržište, oni ne samo da se sada zaustavljaju, već se svaki od njih upravo i okreće u suprotnom smijeru", rekao je Druckenmiller. "U velikoj smo nevolji. Sve što sam predvidio da će se dogoditi se sada događa. Samo još gore."

Nastavio je: "Do 2027. sami troškovi kamata na dug će pojesti svu potrošnju za zdravstvo. Do 2047. će pojesti svu državnu potrošnju. Do 2049. će pojesti svu socijalnu sigurnost. Dolazimo do točke u kojoj su troškovi kamata na dug toliko visoki da će pojesti samu sposobnost da se, u osnovi, opslužuje sljedeća generacija, a nisam siguran ni za sadašnju."

Nastao je muk, a da razbije neugodnu tišinu, investitor je u šali kazao voditelju: "Ponio sam cijanida, ako će vam pomoći", na što je ovaj odgovori: "Ma samo razmišljam o tome da ćemo mi proći ok." "Da, jer ćemo biti mrtvi", nasmijao se Druckenmiller. 

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Središnja banka prošlog je tjedna podigla stope za tri četvrtine postotnog boda po treći put zaredom i obećala dodatna povećanja kako bi pobijedila inflaciju, što je izazvalo veliku rasprodaju rizične imovine. S&P 500, indeks 500 najjačih tehnoloških kompanija, u utorak je dosegao svoju najnižu razinu od lipnja, kada je već bio pao za 25 posto od najviše cijene. Fed sada koristi politiku pooštravanja mjera koja je najagresivnija još od 1980-ih.

Investitor je rekao da je Fed pogriješio kada je iznio "smiješnu teoriju prolaznosti inflacije", sugerirajući da je ona potaknuta čimbenicima opskrbnog lanca i potražnje koji su uvelike povezani s pandemijom.

"Kada pogriješite, morate priznati da ste u krivu i nastaviti dalje, bez obzira što su tih devet ili 10 mjeseci samo sjedili i kupovali obveznice u iznosu od 120 milijardi dolara", rekao je Druckenmiller. "Mislim da će posljedice toga biti s nama još dugo, dugo vremena."

Indeks potrošačkih cijena porastao je 8,3 posto u kolovozu u odnosu na prošlu godinu, blizu  je najvišeg nivoa u 40 godina i iznad svih očekivanja.

Druckenmiller je nekoć upravljao Quantum Fundom Georgea Soroša i proslavio se nakon što mu je 1992. pomogao uložiti 10 milijardi dolara protiv britanske funte. Kasnije je nadgledao 12 milijardi dolara kao predsjednik Duquesne Capital Managementa prije nego što je zatvorio svoju tvrtku 2010.

“Ne morate čak ni govoriti o Crnim labudovima (op.a. neočekivani događaj koji negativno utječe na tržište) da biste bili zabrinuti. Za mene nagrada za rizik posjedovanja imovine trenutno nema previše smisla,” rekao je Druckenmiller.

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Milijarder ulagač Stanley Druckenmiller vjeruje da pokušaj američke centralne banke (FED) da se jednostavnom monetarnom politikom dizanja kamatnih stopa zbog brzo riješi viškova količine novca, kojima je pomogla u stvaranju desetljeća, i tako othrva inflaciji, neće dobro završiti za američko gospodarstvo.

"Najvjerojatniji rasplet je tvrdo prizemljenje do kraja 2023. godine", rekao je Druckenmiller na CNBC-jevom Delivering Alpha Investor Summitu u New Yorku. “Bit ću zapanjen ako ne budemo imali recesiju iduće godine. Ne znam vrijeme, ali sigurno do kraja 2023."

No legendarni investitor, koji nikada dosad nije imao lošu trgovinsku godinu na tržištima, boji se da bi se moglo dogoditi nešto još gore. "Ne isključujem nešto jako loše", rekao je.

Druckenmiller vjeruje da su izvanredno kvantitativno popuštanje tj. printanje novca i nulte kamatne stope tijekom proteklog desetljeća stvorili imovinski balon.

"Svi ti čimbenici koji uzrokuju rastuće tržište, oni ne samo da se sada zaustavljaju, već se svaki od njih upravo i okreće u suprotnom smijeru", rekao je Druckenmiller. "U velikoj smo nevolji. Sve što sam predvidio da će se dogoditi se sada događa. Samo još gore."

Nastavio je: "Do 2027. sami troškovi kamata na dug će pojesti svu potrošnju za zdravstvo. Do 2047. će pojesti svu državnu potrošnju. Do 2049. će pojesti svu socijalnu sigurnost. Dolazimo do točke u kojoj su troškovi kamata na dug toliko visoki da će pojesti samu sposobnost da se, u osnovi, opslužuje sljedeća generacija, a nisam siguran ni za sadašnju."

Nastao je muk, a da razbije neugodnu tišinu, investitor je u šali kazao voditelju: "Ponio sam cijanida, ako će vam pomoći", na što je ovaj odgovori: "Ma samo razmišljam o tome da ćemo mi proći ok." "Da, jer ćemo biti mrtvi", nasmijao se Druckenmiller. 

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Središnja banka prošlog je tjedna podigla stope za tri četvrtine postotnog boda po treći put zaredom i obećala dodatna povećanja kako bi pobijedila inflaciju, što je izazvalo veliku rasprodaju rizične imovine. S&P 500, indeks 500 najjačih tehnoloških kompanija, u utorak je dosegao svoju najnižu razinu od lipnja, kada je već bio pao za 25 posto od najviše cijene. Fed sada koristi politiku pooštravanja mjera koja je najagresivnija još od 1980-ih.

Investitor je rekao da je Fed pogriješio kada je iznio "smiješnu teoriju prolaznosti inflacije", sugerirajući da je ona potaknuta čimbenicima opskrbnog lanca i potražnje koji su uvelike povezani s pandemijom.

"Kada pogriješite, morate priznati da ste u krivu i nastaviti dalje, bez obzira što su tih devet ili 10 mjeseci samo sjedili i kupovali obveznice u iznosu od 120 milijardi dolara", rekao je Druckenmiller. "Mislim da će posljedice toga biti s nama još dugo, dugo vremena."

Indeks potrošačkih cijena porastao je 8,3 posto u kolovozu u odnosu na prošlu godinu, blizu  je najvišeg nivoa u 40 godina i iznad svih očekivanja.

Druckenmiller je nekoć upravljao Quantum Fundom Georgea Soroša i proslavio se nakon što mu je 1992. pomogao uložiti 10 milijardi dolara protiv britanske funte. Kasnije je nadgledao 12 milijardi dolara kao predsjednik Duquesne Capital Managementa prije nego što je zatvorio svoju tvrtku 2010.

“Ne morate čak ni govoriti o Crnim labudovima (op.a. neočekivani događaj koji negativno utječe na tržište) da biste bili zabrinuti. Za mene nagrada za rizik posjedovanja imovine trenutno nema previše smisla,” rekao je Druckenmiller.

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Fabrice Coffrini/Afp
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Svijetvesela vremena

Sorošev investitor iznio mračnu prognozu: ‘U velikoj smo nevolji. Sljedeća generacija će biti toliko zadužena da neće moći ništa. Srećom, ja ću tada biti mrtav‘

Piše Marin Prvan
1. listopada 2022. - 20:48
23504458
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Fabrice Coffrini/Afp

Milijarder ulagač Stanley Druckenmiller vjeruje da pokušaj američke centralne banke (FED) da se jednostavnom monetarnom politikom dizanja kamatnih stopa zbog brzo riješi viškova količine novca, kojima je pomogla u stvaranju desetljeća, i tako othrva inflaciji, neće dobro završiti za američko gospodarstvo.

"Najvjerojatniji rasplet je tvrdo prizemljenje do kraja 2023. godine", rekao je Druckenmiller na CNBC-jevom Delivering Alpha Investor Summitu u New Yorku. “Bit ću zapanjen ako ne budemo imali recesiju iduće godine. Ne znam vrijeme, ali sigurno do kraja 2023."

No legendarni investitor, koji nikada dosad nije imao lošu trgovinsku godinu na tržištima, boji se da bi se moglo dogoditi nešto još gore. "Ne isključujem nešto jako loše", rekao je.

Druckenmiller vjeruje da su...

#DRUCKENMILLER#DIONICE#BURZA#TRŽIŠTE#INVESTITOR#KRIZA#INFLACIJA
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11. svibanj 2024 21:13